Chapter 1 - Super Forecasting
Legacy | Wealth | Preservation • 17m
How we can explain why forecasting is hard and how systematic thinking can help close the gap…
Points of discussion:
• Philip Tetlock’s qualities of Superforecasting
• Improving predictions by regularly updating data
• The Brier Score and why it really matters
• Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions
• The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative
Up Next in Legacy | Wealth | Preservation
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Chapter 2 - Starting With A Process
How we can often be prone to home country equity bias that leaves our portfolio inadequate...
Points of discussion:
• The importance of Global Asset Class Diversity
• Ray Dalio and the “All Weather Portfolio”
• Making portfolios resistant to inflation and growth shocks -
Chapter 3 - Equilibrium
How we can only produce true diversification if asset classes are held in proper equilibrium...
Points of discussion:
• The 60/40 portfolio and why it’s not diversified, or risk balanced at all
• The advantages of Global Risk Parity Portfolios
• How leverage helps to preserve dive... -
Chapter 4 - Realigning Highly Diversi...
How we can meet our funding obligations when traditional yields are so low...
Points of discussion:
• Rebalancing Premium to generate 3%-5% in excess returns
• The Diversification Ratio and maximally diversified portfolios
• The increased value of maximally diversified commodity s...
