Pries Capital Macroeconomic Framework
Pries Capital Macroeconomic Framework • 25m
Air Date: February 6, 2022
Pries Capital Macroeconomic Framework where we believe the two most critical variables in any economy are “Growth” and “Inflation.” The level of growth or inflation is not as important as the direction because the economy and asset markets are relative, not static. When we look to forecast the expected future direction of these two variables: “Growth” and “Inflation.” Is the rate of economic growth going to rise or fall? Of the two factors, the direction of real economic growth is more important for asset price performance.
Points of discussion:
• The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends.
• Secular trends are slow-moving and are impacted most closely by demographics and debt.
• Cyclical trends are 6 to 18-month fluctuations in growth and inflation, which occur on top of secular trends that are 3 to 5-years in nature.
• Asset prices respond very closely to the cyclical trends in economic growth and inflation.
• Pries Capital’s Macroeconomic Framework monitors both critical trends and details the probable path forward for asset prices.
Pries Capital is a private equity investment research firm. Pries Capital generates exclusive stock market and real estate investment research for all types of investors. Whether you are an institutional investor or a retail investor, the firm strives to be the first-place investors go to for their quantitative macroeconomic research and financial market strategy.
With that said, "We have great challenges & great opportunities, and with our help we’ll meet them together!" – Jason Pries
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Economic Growth
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Points of discussion:
• Economic growth is an increase in the production of goods and services in an economy.
• Increases in capital goods, labor force, technology, and human capital can all contribute to economic growth.
• Economic growth is commonly measured in ... -
Economic Inflation
Pries Capital’s Economic Inflation
Points of discussion:
• Inflation is the rate at which the value of a currency is falling and, consequently, the general level of prices for goods and services is rising.
• Inflation is sometimes classified into three types: Demand-Pull inflation, Cost-Push inf... -
Factor Coincident Index
Pries Capital’s Factor Coincident Index
Points of discussion:
• Coincident indicator refers to metrics that reflect the contemporaneous condition of the economy.
• Coincident indicators are often used in conjunction with leading and lagging indicators to get a full view of where the economy has ...
